Why would anyone sell?
It's too bad people are glued to their hourly account balance and missing out on the big picture. Emotionally distraught people are selling. Financially wise people are buying. This summer, there is going to be alot of bitter folks that wish they never logged into their accounts on Feb 1 2018. Countries around the world are not banning crypto. They are simply cleaning things up and gearing up for full blown legal crypto. Sure, there will be new rules but crypto is here to stay. If tomorrow marked the final day of cryptocurrency history, I could understand the panic and the selling. However, do you think the Canadian gov't would be using Ethereum for record keeping if crypto was in trouble? Would IBM be partnering with Stellar if crypto was doomed? Would Microsoft be sponsoring NEO dev competitions if crypto was ending? Would Samsung be pouring big money into building and selling cryptocurrency mining chips if Crypto was truly in trouble? Politicians are pumping the breaks until they figure out how to cash in. They did they same thing with daily fantasy sports, online poker, gambling, and cannabis. In 2015, Daily Fantasy Sports was legal in 45 states. In 2016, it was legal in only 10 states because politicians wanted to shut it down until they figured out how to make money off it for themselves. Today, DFS is legal in 41 states. That's right, from an unregulated 45 (2015), cracked down to 10 (2016), and now that politicians can make money off the regulated industry, it's legal in 41. Folks, crypto is going through the growing pains of becoming a full blown accepted industry. Check out online poker...
- Bitcoin now costs the same as it did the day after Thanksgiving.
- Ethereum costs the same as it did on Jan 2.
- Neo is currently twice as much as it was Dec 21.
- Monero is at 233 and it never broke 200 until this past December.
- Cardano is now right where it was in mid December.
Whether it's online poker, cannabis, daily fantasy sports, or cryptocurrency, the people vote with their wallets. Sure, governments always get involved so they can make a buck too (if it was about our safety, health, and well being then guns would be outlawed). Hold your coins if you haven't sold. Buy coins this weekend at a massive discount. Embrace the future. Expect dips along the way. We are riding a climate change graph that continually trends up. So what if there is a record cold winter here or there. The zig-zagging line is trending up from year to year. Hold and/or buy. You will have major profits should you choose to sell this summer, fall, or in 2019. Keep your eye on the prize, stay off reddit, stay away from "news", and trust your instincts when you realized months or years ago that this was an unstoppable revolution: the future.
- 1995: The first online poker websites appear. Everyone made money except governments.
- 1999: Republican from Virginia, Robert Goodlatte, tried to shut it down with a new law. People panicked and cashed out. His law never passed. It was defeated.
- 2003: Thanks to pressure from the Justice Department, most banks blocked customers from sending money to poker sites
- 2005: The world's largest online poker site (PartyGaming) went live on the London Stock exchange the same year that a Republican from Iowa tried to ban credit card payments on gambling sites. His bill never reached the Senate floor.
- 2006: Goodlatte is back again. Tries to ban online pokegambling. He is defeated again.
- 2006: President Bush signs the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, banning the transfer of money to gambling sites. Everyone cashes out.
- Today: New Jersey, Nevada, and Delaware have legalized it. People in every state freely use offshore sites. Banks are no longer blocking payments.
|Do you think online poker will go through another boom when it is fully reintegrated in the United States? What is the biggest way that most online poker pros have maintained their way of living post Black Friday? Do you have any other docs in the works? I really enjoyed Bet Raise Fold.||I think it would be v hard for it to "boom" (like explode out of nowhere like it did in the 2000s) again, but it will surely grow, and I'm optimistic that it will grow to be an even larger industry than before (over the long run, could take a decade or more). like Yoda says, "hard to see, the future is." totally applies to the future of online poker - there are so many known and unknown variables at play at all times.|
|How much of 2M2MM was staged? It was a very entertaining show to watch.. any chances for another season?||Hmm, hard to say. all reality TV is staged to some degree. from what I understand/gleaned from the production team working on the show (they were all vets of the reality TV world, worked on shows like Amazing Race and Ghost Hunters), 2M2MM trended much closer to the documentary side of reality tv than most. that said, I often compare the experience of 2M2MM like being an actor playing myself - and I think everyone who participated would prob agree w that. the plots of each episode were set up in advance (though we'd argue vigorously with the prodco to make sure if anything was "set up for the show" it'd be something we normally might do in real life). the most staged stuff would be like the house wars vs aejones/luckychewy (situation set up for the show), or aspects of the Benyamine match (Erica Schoenberg is at the pool specifically for our scene, it's not a chance encounter), or Dani and Chewy hunting for girls for the Connect 4 Charity episode. the completely real stuff is all the poker action - our bankrolls and emotions on full display for the world!|
|The Tilt Room was set up for the show, too - maybe my greatest invention all time. smashing watermelons with a sledgehammer is an awesome way to de-tilt (but very wasteful!!! smashing pottery - more responsible way to fill your tilt room, ppl)|
|Did you guys ever wake up Emil?||On 2M2MM, the production team famously had to break down two doors of his (he won the master bedroom and it was so ballin it had two doors he could lock to keep people out) to wake him up for a shoot towards the end of filming.|
|We did wake him up, and he had a piece of that action - so it was a more pleasant awakening than the times we'd prank wake him by telling him all the pizzerias in NY were on strike or the house was on fire.|
|Actually, did Viffer ever find out about his pot bet bluffing tell?||I heard he went into lockdown and wouldn't come out until he had fixed it :)|
|Who would be in your team of poker player super heroes and who would their x-men or avengers counter parts be?||Maybe best question anyone has ever asked.|
|Ashton Griffin - Wolverine.|
|Ben "Sauce" Sulsky - Beast.|
|Ziigmund - Thor.|
|Dani Stern - The Incredible Hulk.|
|Vanessa Selbst - Jean Grey.|
|Aaron "aejones" Jones - Iron Man.|
|Jennifer Harman - Storm.|
|Erik Seidel - Captain America.|
|Chris Ferguson - Gambit.|
|Not a superhero but Howard Lederer is totally Kingpin. (actually, Kingpin might have to be Ivey...)|
|ROSENKRANTZ - Do you still play poker as a main source of income? When you do play do you play online outside of the US or live?||Nope - i actually don't play much poker at all, outside of WSOP. i'll play in home games now and then but it's mostly a social thing. was thinking about making an extended trip to Montreal to visit Martin, hear him play music and grind online next year... i miss playing online poker a TON. what's more fun than stacking n00bs with AA.|
|Check-raising stupid fucking tourists?||Stacks and towers of checks I can't even see over!!!|
|Do you think that you could persuade the Alamo Drafthouse in Denver to have a showing?||If these three screenings (Yonkers, Austin, KC) are profitable for them, or I can show them we have a strong group of people in Denver who'd come out, it's a possibility...|
|Yo Krantz, where is the information on the one in Yonkers? I live in Queens would love to go and show my support.||Oh man, thanks for the support - it happened last week though :/|
|How often do you play live/online (hours per week/month or whatever)? What stakes? Also, you guys toss money around like toilet paper. Send me a couple grand so i can make a tilt/lockdown room and go pro.||Thanks, man! If you surf through some of the other posts in this thread you can read some more, but since Black Friday I don't play much poker live or online. If there were legal online poker in my state right now, I'd probably dabble in small and mid stakes and try to build up a bankroll playing NLHE/PLO cash (shorthanded and heads up) and the occasional tournament!|
|2M2MM was in 2009, 4+ years later and all that toilet paper is more valuable to everybody :)|
|With your experience in documentary and financing, can you get "I BET YOU" tv series back in production? phil laak craziness needs to be serialized.||If I ever run into him, I will plant the seed. should have run 6 seasons and a movie.|
|Do you think bitcoin will change the future of online gambling?||I'm still trying to wrap my head around bitcoin... i have these handy videos bookmarked to watch as soon as i get some free time! Link to www.khanacademy.org|
|Link to www.youtube.com|
|Do you see the games remaining as reg-infested and hard as they are now? Is there a point where everything about NLHE is basically known and therefore the skill level of most pros will be capped?||Not if the sites figure out how to bring in more casual players - a priority for their businesses as the US market legalizes and the global market matures. Hard to say what the games could look like in 5 years... I think there will be fewer pros/regs. Also think NLHE will always be the most popular game even though basic strategy is pretty well known to anyone who wants to put in the time.|
|Hi, Jay. Great movie, really enjoyed it.||Thanks! My plans are really to throw myself into writing and producing with the same focus and intensity that I gave to poker during my early 20s. I'd like to write and publish some books (fiction, nonfiction, poker, nonpoker), write and produce more movies, TV, games... I'm inspired by artists like Joss Whedon, Ray Bradbury, Hayao Miyazaki, Bill Watterson... entrepreneurs like Tim League, Burnie Burns and Felicia Day and the folks at VHX and Pixar and Valve... Basically, I want to build a career in popular entertainment, telling smart, resonant stories to larger and larger audiences. And I want to work with the best people I can while I do this.|
|What are your plans for the next 1-5 years?||I also plan to win the WSOP Main Event, but that could take 6-7 years because you gotta get lucky!|
|Are you still friends with the cast from 2M2MM and do you and any of them still rent a house in Vegas for the summer?||We are great friends! I actually lived with Emil and Brian in a house this summer while I was out at the WSOP premiering BRF. We worked out a ton (Brian is REALLY into Olympic weightlifting these days) and watched lots of movies. There was a movie theater room in the house and those guys have eclectic wide ranging tastes in film so it was really fun. One of our favorites was this Norwegian crime thrilleblack comedy called Headhunters: Link to www.imdb.com|
|Also I was one of the many backers on Kickstarter for BRF. How tedious was it putting everyone's name in the credits?||Dani, Brian and Emil lived together in Toronto for awhile post Black Friday but now Dani has a serious girlfriend, a dog and a cat and they're all living in different countries (well, Dani and Brian live near each other in Mexico but Emil's in Finland)|
|As poker players, do you feel like you've lost an appreciation for money? Who do you think is the most overrated poker player nowadays?||I definitely lost any conception of the value of the dollar during the height of the online poker boom. Post Black Friday, 3 years later, I feel like I have a much healthier and more reasonable relationship with money. I think any serious poker player has to divorce himself from the value of money in order to risk it with complete and utter disregard for anything but the expected value of the play. If I had to answer the overrated question... I'd say wcrider (sp?) is overrated. Not skill wise - I have no idea how good or bad he is objectively - but I've read a few of his forum posts on 2p2 and he is clearly young with a huge ego, and you just can't be the best in the world with an ego the size of an elephant (though it can give you some huge competitive advantages). But see how subjective a question like this is? For the most part the idea of underrated or overrated players is worthless, variance is a way bigger factor than anyone understands... the only person who can truly and accurately "rate" a poker player's skill is the player themselves!|
|Will there be any new videos on TheMicros?||I so hope so. The major problem for us is the economics... the cost of animating those episodes is pretty big in terms of money and time. The sponsorship model worked great pre-Black Friday, but post Black Friday and the market for an animated poker show is completely different. John and I have thought about Kickstarting it, but I'm not confident we could raise enough money to do it the way we'd want to (if we come back, we want to come back full throttle, with regularly scheduled content and season long storylines... we don't want to just put up an episode or two here or there). There are a few options I've been thinking about, but they're just ideas at this point.|
|There's a big possibility we'll come back soon with regular comics, though. You can check out some examples of what these would look like on our Facebook page (there's a photo gallery of the ~12 comics we've done so far): Link to www.facebook.com|
|Hey all, what are your thoughts on regulated poker, putting Delaware politely to one side, is there half a chance of it being successful in New Jersey, without interstate compacts? By successful, I probably mean will we see guy n girls like you in that state playing for a living? Will there be the liquidity to sustain a more than a handful of full timers?||I think it will be successful but it will not explode overnight, it will take time and nurturing like any good crop... growing the igaming business in NJ, the companies' priorities are not necessarily directly in line with catering to guys/gals like us who want to play for a living. So I don't think you'll see many full timers playing exclusively on NJ sites. See Joe Tall's post in this thread for more insight into this, it's pretty good!|
|Probably too late but I'll give it a shot anyway.||I tried to/try to study and it felt like pulling teeth. I became interested in applications of game theory for a few months and the challenge of reeducating myself in basic maths was interesting... but even then I didn't feel as energized or excited about thinking about poker as I did when I was able to play and compete consistently. I decided recently that I'd just take a break until I was able to play consistently again (I have been thinking about a trip to NJ or out of the country to grind for a bit, but it's just an idea right now).|
|Any words of advice here?||I'm tired so this is kind of rambly and I'm just talking some of this out loud for the first time, but I hope this helps a bit. Post Black Friday I've done a lot of reevaluating my relationship with poker and the expectations I have of it and it's done a lot to reverse feelings of anger, sadness and frustration at the US situation (and at the game in general).|
|What was the biggest thing you guys have bet on beside poker?||Games of NFL Blitz, trick pool shots, what LuckyChewy thinks the distance from the Earth to the sun is, whether [name redacted] can get those strippers to come ride the inflatable dolphin, oveunder of how long they can ride it for before falling in pool... countless thousands have been won and lost on these diabolical problems.|
|off, great movie! It was well worth the wait. My question is this, what is the craziest, most extravagant thing you purchased with your poker winnings?||Thank you! whitelime reminds me of a night in NYC at a club called Arena (who knows if this place still exists), where we went heads up against NYG running back Brandon Jacobs in a bottle-buying war. the bottles came equipped with sexy bottle babes and sparklers. we lost the bottle war to BJ (in hindsight i think we lost the battle, too - huuuge tab)|
|I want to first thank you for establishing an amazing training site in DC. It has helped my game immensely. For the questions: would you consider yourself more of a filmmaker or poker player at this point? In a podcast slowhabit noted poker helped his entrepeneurship immensely and vice versa. Do you see any similar parallels b/t poker and film-making?||Thanks! I'll always consider myself a poker player, but in terms of profession I suppose I'm trending towards the filmmaker side of the coin. But all of the creative work I do will be influenced by the unique way I see the world - a viewpoint heavily influenced by poker. It's an insanely beautiful game: a complex blend of strategy, tactics and human emotion. Being a poker player isn't a profession to me, it's something I can't help... at this point it's part of the fabric of my identity.|
|I don't think we would have ended up with a movie this good (or maybe not a movie at all!) if Taylor and I didn't bring our backgrounds in poker and entrepreneurship to bear to make as many +EV decisions as we possibly could over the entirety of the project. In a lot of ways filmmaking is an entrepreneurial pursuit, in a lot of ways producing a movie is like multitabling high stakes online poker. You're juggling tons of variables, managing human relationships, analyzing risk, making high pressure decisions...|
|I talk a lot about this stuff in this podcast with Jared Tendler: Link to www.mentalgamefish.com|
|I really enjoyed the movie and showed it to my family. But their reaction across the board was: "But they only portray people who win in the game!". What do you think of this reaction? Isn't portraying mostly the pros or winning player missing a big slice of what online poker is.||We were originally interested in finding a losing player... posting what Ryan posted earlier about this: "Yes, we were planning to follow someone exactly like that. However, we found it more challenging than we expected to find a compelling, losing player who was willing to go on camera. For example, I spoke briefly with grimstarr (online poker veterans will know who this is) about appearing in the film, but there were too many complications involved." After Black Friday it became pretty much impossible for us to add another character, winner or loser. We also felt like the downsides of poker had already been given a lot of treatment in the cultural representation of the game... but nothing had been done to authentically show the lives of modern professional poker players during the poker boom. Still, we did have many conversations about the losers, about the pros who are staked, etc... what we should or could convey about that aspect of the game... ultimately we decided we needed to stick to our core characters (especially after Black Friday) and their experiences. We did make an effort to explore the psychological consequences of losing as a professional, and the risks that you take on when you do play this game for a living... hopefully that sequence in the last third of the film can show that even the winners are losers, and they lose often! Basically, a lot of the energy for this project's conception was to showcase what it was like to be an online pro player, and dispel misconceptions that the public has about poker and online poker. To show the injustice done to the industry as a result of the UIGEA... to show what caused the boom... historical events like this, put into context in a digestible way. That was the driving motivation in making the film and selecting Danielle, Tony and Martin - and after Black Friday, their stories were all that mattered to this particular film. Hope this sheds some light on our thinking.|
|Hey Krantz!||Play tons of poker, think about it with a truly open mind and engage in critical discussion of poker with tons of players of all skill levels. Tenacity and fearlessness are your words to live by (and maybe "breathe," for when you're tilting).|
|What advice would you have for an online player from the us that plays on bovada to move up the stakes. Currently grinding double-up sit n gos and crushing ?||I really love this post about training and practice. If you want to move up and become better, work hard and work smart: Link to forumserver.twoplustwo.com|
|Jay, I asked you on twitter during the months leading up to the release about selling autographed pictures of some online pros in the movie on kickstarter to raise money. You replied saying it was a good idea and you'd look into it. I was thrilled, but become really bummed when I saw that the signed movie poster costs $200. I wish I could afford it, but I just can't. I graduate from university in a week and still don't have a job offer, so this is above my price range. Since you have 18/20 left, is there a chance of a price drop for them in the future?||We actually only managed to get about 5-7 signed posters total and ran out! but email me your info at [email protected] and i will see if we can find some way to get you something cool! (i remember your tweets!)|
|In the home game you had on 2m2mm, did Andrew robl ever tell you what his other card was? He showed you a jack he hit on the river..||He didn't - I tried to get it out of him, but he wouldn't say. based on what I know of him i'm 95% sure it was a good fold (5% he made a sick bluff and is so buddha he doesn't need to brag or show it on TV)|
|I loved BRF by the way and my dad liked it too. It helped him understand "my world" a little better.||You gotta learn the language of filmmaking, and you gotta experiment (in poker terms, you can't just study - you hafta play hands!). So try to make a little short documentary about something (this is what we did - FROM BUSTO TO ROBUSTO ended up being essential practice in learning to make something as big as BRF) and take it all the way through from preproduction to marketing and distribution, even if it's just on the tiniest scale.|
|I'm sure you learned so much throughout the course of making the film, so if you could go back to give yourself advice from when you just started BRF, what would you say?||Thanks! It's awesome to hear about friends/family enjoying the movie. I'm heading out to host this theatrical screening in Austin but I will get back to you on your question tonight. OK, I'm back. I'm glad you love FCH because my first bit of advice is to read the ebook he just released: Link to www.amazon.com|
|I am curious on roughly how sales are going? How did you choose how to distribute the film. Really enjoyed the film.||Direct sales through VHX were great. Not tens of thousands of people but very strong for an independent documentary. The decision to distribute the film through a combination of Kickstarter, VHX and Tugg (skipping film festivals in favor of debuting at the 2013 World Series of Poker) was made mostly as a result of talking to other filmmakers, studying the success of Indie Game: The Movie (Link to www.indiegamethemovie.com and reading Think Outside the Box Office (Link to www.amazon.com)|
|If we could go back and do it again I don't think we would have done much differently. The biggest change I'd have made to our strategy would have been to organize a ~6 city Tugg tour of the film to build hype before the online release, and to incorporate Kickstarter earlier in the production (it would have been really fun and cathartic to share the ups and downs of the whole production process with backers!)|
|Just rewatched 2M2MM a few weeks back...LOL at Jay's roller skating penalty stunt. Question about the doc...how did you decide on profiling Dunst, Alexei and Danielle? Who else was a finalist to be featured?||Still got those roller skates!|
|Why does ansky keep knocking me out of ftops!!||Pretty sure this stems from his anger issues. see 2M2MM Mach 5 snap call argument for evidence. he HULKS out when he sees your SN and smashes your soul!|
|Not so much a question as an obvious point. Loved the film, loved being a part of it and helping out. I really don't have anything else. If anyone here hasn't seen the film yet, do so asap. It really is an incredible piece of work.||Love you too, bro! and not just because you're also named Jay. it's because the goddamn FORCE IS WITH YOU.|
|Given that Jay's poker training site, "Deuces Cracked" ( Link to www.deucescracked.co ), actually make Duck merchandise ( Link to img651.imageshack.us ), and your username is PERSIANDUCK i think you guys should form the first poker supergroup and call yourselves "THE MIGHTY DUCKS".||Those ducks are collectors items!!!|
|I assume this question was targeted at Jay or Tony/Danielle/Martin, but the most extravagant thing I ever purchased was an $800 couch. Still had the wrapper on it and everything.||Where'd you get $800?|
|Jay,The Texas Legislator will go back in to session in Jan of 2015. I expect that there will be hearing for both live and online poker. Since your living in the Austin would you be willing to testify at the State Capitol in Austin in front of the Texas State Legislator to help bring poker to Texas.||I love comedy but have 0 appetite for politics. I don't believe I could say anything that would be more helpful than what we've said in making Bet Raise Fold, and I don't believe that anything but money will help bring poker to Texas :)|
|Very tedious, but well well worth it. Thanks so much for supporting the project!||Yes, huge thank you for backing us!|
|Krantz, in a deucescracked video where you commentated with ariel about his match against tie53, bit of a famous hand. Q67hh-Tss, Tie53 check raises a committing size on the turn. we fold Q6. Do you still think this was a close fold with Q6 or do you appreciate now that it was probably wrong.||Don't recall the specifics of that hand but I think past Jay/past Ariel were probably right and no one, not even me from the future, would know better than them :)|
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